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martes, 24 de junio de 2008

Deuda Pública e Inflación: El costado político

Hace poco di (gratamente) a parar con este paper de Carmen Reinhart y Kenneth Rogoff (de quienes ya habíamos hablado en este post). Dos grandes economistas académicos que tratan mucho con las crisis de países emergentes, y en este caso analizan lo que muchos analistas, policy makers y académicos parecen dejar de lado: la deuda pública interna. Es decir, la deuda pública que tienen en su poder residentes del país de origen de la deuda. Después de leerlo, siempre sucede que uno intenta relacionarlo con la realidad Argentina. Es por eso, que para empezar voy a lanzar dos gráficos de la posición de la deuda en Argentina en este último tiempo. El primero mostrando la evolución la deuda total sobre PBI en el tiempo, y el segundo los porcentajes de deuda externa e interna como porcentaje de la deuda total (ambos con datos del MECON).



La primer observación es que el primer gráfico es más optimista que otra cosa. La deuda como porcentaje del PBI parece seguir una tendencia bajista, aunque el último dato es de diciembre de 2007, por lo que falta lo peor, ya sea por el aumento del gasto en los últimos meses como también el conflicto con el campo y su impacto en esta gráfico por la posible desaceleración del PBI. A pesar de la tendencia bajista, el porcentaje se encuentra en los niveles pre-crisis del 2001.

La segunda observación viene del segundo gráfico. Sin dudas, el gobierno se ha regocijado mucho de la disminución de la deuda externa, más que nada después del canje de deuda y del pago al FMI. Sin embargo, este artículo nos informa que hay que tener cuidado con los niveles de deuda doméstica, ya que en general son importantes en los tiempos pre-crisis. Otra observación de los datos es que en el período de la crisis no hay información disponible y por eso se encuentra esa caída abrupta en el segundo gráfico.

Hay justamente un punto del artículo que fue el que más me interesó. Como Argentina se encuentra saludable en cuanto a nivel de reservas y en posición más dudosa frente a la lucha contra la inflación, fueron las crisis hiperinflacionarias y su relación con la deuda doméstica la que intenté relacionar con Argentina.

Conclusión 1: Pensar siempre en ambas deudas, tanto externas como internas. Ambas pueden ser determinantes de crisis económicas.

Mi temor (como podrán confirmar con posts pasados) con respecto a una hiper, siempre fue del lado política y de expectativas. Primero, que estas últimas no terminaran en un buen lugar (siempre relacionado a la corrupción del INDEC) y que en algún momento, al gobierno se le ocurra (al no tener acceso a los mercados internacionales de deuda) empezar a pagar parte de la deuda pública con emisión monetaria como sucedió en los episodios hiperinflacionarios de 1989-1990. Justamente el paper hace enfoque en este
último aspecto. Dice que la mayoría de las deudas domésticas son importantes, de largo plazo y no indexadas y que al tener estas características, a los gobiernos de los países les cuesta muy poco hacer uso de la impresión de billetes para solventarlas generando así hiperinflaciones y crisis. Podría ser este el caso de Argentina? En una hipotética situación de gran deuda (con un déficit importante) que no se puede pagar (este no es el caso en estos momentos en Argentina, aunque hay que ver como termina el tema retenciones), le costaría menos al matrimonio presidencial emitir (generando mayor inflación) que intentar salir a buscar mayores recursos tributarios?

Veamos los números, teniendo siempre en cuenta que el acceso a mercados internacionales para tomar deuda se encuentra cerrado porque Argentina sigue en default. Ahora, la deuda total en billones de dólares es de 145 aproximadamente. Mientras que la deuda indexada por inflación es de 44 billones y la deuda a corto plazo es de 10 billones. Siempre hablando aproximadamente y cifras en dólares y hasta diciembre de 2007. Parecería ser que la cantidad de deuda a largo y mediano plazo es voluminosa pero, sin duda, el aspecto clave (en términos políticos) es la deuda indexada por inflación (es decir que se ajusta al índice de precios del INDEC). Suponiendo que el gobierno manipulo el INDEC, además de por las ganancias políticas, para no tener que pagar tanta deuda, podemos llegar lógicamente a que tampoco va a emitir dinero para solventar su deuda pública generando así más inflación (que a su vez automáticamente aumenta la parte de la deuda indexada por inflación).

Conclusión 2: No parece haber incentivos para que el gobierno emita dinero para pagar deuda y caer en una posible hiper.


Por último, en alguna parte del paper hace alusión a que los organismos internacionales también pasan de largo la variable de deuda pública interna y no deberían hacerlo al considerar la financiación de algunos países. En general, papers como estos tienen mucho impacto en estos organismos, por lo que estaría bueno que Argentina intente contener el aumento de su deuda pública doméstica (denotado por el gráfico a continuación) ya que en muchos casos la financiación por parte de organismos internacionales es necesaria.


Conclusión 3: Las posibilidades de financiación de Argentina se achican con el paso del tiempo. Por lo tanto, el arreglo con los hold outs desde el lado político parecería ser inevitable, al menos en el mediano plazo. Y si el lector no está muy convencido de esto, leer esta nota, que pinta un panorama un poco más oscuro en cuanto a financiación pero por lo menos no se habla de emisión para solventar deuda.

Después de este post, mi único temor con respecto a escaladas en el nivel de precios se relaciona con las expectativas de la gente. Sigo esperando la reconstrucción del INDEC (que parece que con el tiempo se va olvidando) para solucionar este tema ya que como Tincho nos informa, el último índice parece ser peor que el anterior. Lo noticia buena del día: parecería que el tema inflacionario no se va a desbocar. La mala: convivir con una alta inflación sigue pegándole a la gente de menos recursos, por lo que el tema de arreglo del INDEC para mejorar las expectativas sigue siendo clave.
Eso es todo desde acá. Recomiendo la lectura del artículo y espero opiniones acerca del tema.
Saludos
Bob

p.d: Hoy falleció Leonid Hurwicz, uno de los ganadores del premio nobel en economía del año pasado. Hacemos conmemoración a su persona desde aquí. Me enteré por este post en Marginal Revolution.

81 comentarios:

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Tincho dijo...

Bob, gracias por mencionar el post!

Ah todo esto, la deuda interna es la que esta en mano de residentes; pero esta en pesos?

Tengo entendido que un 33% (+ o -) esta en pesos. Y en esa deuda el incentivo a pagarla con emision existe y mas aun con la truchada de ajustarla por la inflacion K, una especie de default. En este ultimo tema un profesor me dijo que el FMI va a dejar de usar "ciertos indices" por declararlo no confiables y eso permitiria gatillar demandas por default.

Por ultimo algo que planteas ahi y realmente me precupa es el cierre en las fuentes de financiamiento. Los redescuentos del central, al limite. Los mercados externos, bien gracias. Salvo que Chavez nos salve, la situacion en cuenta a vencimientos en los ultimos años es complicada. Hasta me acuerdo haber leida una nota de cuando Loustea era ministro y queria hacer roll over de vencimientos, me hacia acordar a la renegociacion de Cavallo.

Saludos

PD: por el lado de a quien le pega mas la inflacion hay algo que se llama sesgo plutocratico y muestra a quien le pega mas, si logro armar algo lo subo; aunque Ele armo algo en su momento.

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Tincho,
Si lo primero que decís es verdad hay que ver cuanto está en pesos pero la verdad me era imposible por los datos que están en la Secretaría de Financiamiento. Se que aprox el 50% del total de la deuda está en pesos, pero después de ahí la división entre residentes y no residentes no aparece. Así que buen agradezco por el dato.
Lo del financiamiento creo que lo había planteado en un post anterior, pero es verdad muy poca gente se ve preocupada por ese tema. Encima echaron a Lousteau que en el último tiempo se empezaba a llevar mejor con los organismos internacionales.
Estaría bueno ver lo de la inflación, no vi nada parecido en ningún lado, no me acuerdo de haberlo leído en lo de Elemaco, si llegás a encontrarlo o a subirlo estaría bueno.
Saludos

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Sera cuestion de ver el dato. Tal vez ese 30 y píco era del canje.

Elemaco habia agarrado el IPC pre K y uso los ponderadores de cada decil para ver a quien efectaba mas la suba de precios; de todas formas es un post bastate viejo. Claro que esto solo mira el lado del gasto y no el de los ingresos.

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